The United States might not reach the agreements of the Paris climate change deal by 2025, according to researchers from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, who have studied gas emission policies in the country.

Almost a month ago, the United States ratified its commitment toward helping climate change and reducing gas emissions in the country, which is the world’s largest emitter of gas after China. A new study based on the government’s projections doubts the chances of reaching a reduction of emissions between 26 and 28 percent. Researchers studied the U.S. gas emissions since 2005, evaluated all of the current policies facing the subject and added the yearly data of gas emissions in the country.

Barack Obama, Paris Agreement
President Barack Obama speaks at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in 2015. Image credit: Planet Pix v/REX/Shutterstock.

“If the policies were locked today, there would be a low likelihood of meeting the target,” explained Jeffery Greenblatt, Berkeley’s scientist and lead author of the research.

The Paris accord 

Last year, the U.S. signed up for the Paris agreement as a way to take responsibility for the amount of gas emissions occurring in the country, as well as becoming a climate leader that would pave the way for others nations’ concerns and actions.

The countries that were present in the accord were asked to submit ambitious expectations to justify the work they will begin in their lands of origin. The U.S. agreed to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 26 percent to 28 percent in 2025. The information was based on gas levels that went back to 2005.

However, the country is facing a political crisis when it comes to making decisions about climate change. The Obama administration announced as their primary climate-plan the “Clean Power Plan” which aimed to reduce carbon pollution from power plants.

Obama’s Clean Plower Plan has been subjected to law, and the Supreme Court took over the initiative to understand better how the administration planned to reduce carbon pollution and how the factories in the state would be limited.

According to Greenblatt, these justice procedures are reducing the possibilities the country has to reach the Paris accord deal, and it might even fall short in emission numbers.

According to the research, the country will have to reduce or cut 1,660 million tons of annual emissions to reach the goal. Researchers say that if current policies are not lifted or orientated towards climate change the country might fall short and reduce 1,330 million tons of emissions.

Researchers are concerned about the upcoming presidential elections, given that policies can change depending on the candidate that gets elected.

The Republican nominee Donald Trump has informed his plans of leaving the Paris accord since to him there’s “no substantial evidence that the human being is to blame.”

In case the Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton gets elected as the next president of the country, the current policies would need to change to reach the Paris accord goals. Detailed results of the study have been published in the journal Nature.

“We can’t get there with our current set of policies, we would fall short of the target if there is no further action,” said Greenblatt to CBS News.

Source: Nature