The UK Met Office – the United Kingdom’s national weather service – has forecasted that the greenhouse gas is about to pass a symbolic threshold as a result of a significant rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels this year due to El Niño phenomenon.
The UK Met Office makes meteorological predictions across all timescales from the weather forecast to climate change. The agency informed that it will very likely be the first time the concentration of CO2 has been above 400 parts per million for the entire year. The CO2 levels were measured atop Hawaii’s famous Mauna Loa volcano, BBC News reported that this agency,
This means that in 2016, greenhouse gas will not be the only cause of significant amounts of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. According to UK Met Office report, El Niño – a climate phenomenon – will be the main reason for the fastest recorded CO2 increase in the air.
Scientist explained that it is expected to have carbon dioxide concentration to rise by an average of about 2ppm per year, but this year, they expect a record increase of 3.15 ppm, plus or minus 0.53 ppm.
CO2 increasing at record rates, even though CO2 emissions are steady, due to change in ocean and land uptake https://t.co/hSLKxiVgkK
— Robert Howarth (@howarth_cornell) May 19, 2016
400 ppm value: There is nothing magical about this number
In an interview, Richard Betts affirms that for scientists, the 400 ppm value (400 molecules of CO2 for every one million molecules in the atmosphere) is a symbolic milestone. Betts says that it has no particular significance for the physics of the climate system. He points out that what is resonant is the fact that the last time atmospheric CO2 was regularly above 400 ppm was 3 to 5 million years ago – before modern humans existed.
“We don’t expect anything suddenly to happen. It’s just an interesting milestone that reminds us of our ongoing influence on the climate system,” he told BBC News
Through a seasonal climate model to predict sea, scientists liked the area where El Niño has with the C02 statistics, which allow them to understand what levels would probably look like across the calendar year.
The study says that in 2016 the average of CO2 concentration will be 404.45 and in September a little bit reduced 401.41 including errors of plus or minus 0.53ppm.
Professor Betts also remarked the importance of t this year’s rise in CO2. He says it is bigger than the last El Niño, in 1997/8, because human emissions have gone up by 25% since then. So, it’s the natural effect on top of the increasing human effect.
— Met Office (@metoffice) June 14, 2016